Some Thoughts on “Dollar Cost Averaging”

Photo by: Rob Lee

The term “Dollar Cost Averaging”, or DCA, can have many different meanings.  Oftentimes when referring to “Dollar Cost Averaging,” people actually mean “Automatic Investing.”  DCA typically refers to investing over a period of time an amount you could have invested initially.  So for example, if you had $10,000 to invest, instead of putting it all in now, you invest it over a period of several months in equal dollar amount increments.  Automatic Investing on the other hand is simply taking a set amount out of your income and investing it every month.  This is what the majority of people think of as Dollar Cost Averaging.

The Theory

Proponents of DCA claim that it reduces risk, because you tend to buy more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high.  This argument makes some sense in an oscillating market that isn’t moving overall in any particular direction.  One question remains, however: why would you want to be investing in an oscillating market that isn’t trending in one direction?  Typically most people’s faith in investing in stock markets is that over time they go up.  If the market is on average going to move upwards, why am I holding back investing a portion of my investment?  On average this simply means I’m going to get a higher price.

The Worst-Case Scenario

If we think about this matter anecdotally it seems intuitive however that by holding back some money to invest we’re reducing our worst-case scenario.  Suppose for example that we invest all our money today and tomorrow the stock drops precipitously.  We’ve avoided that risk.  At the same time however, what if the stock rises sharply and never returns to our original price.  While we may be reducing our worst-case scenario somewhat, we’re also risking leaving a lot of money on the table.  Still there seems to be some merit to increasing your exposure over time. (more…)

Why You Spend More Than You Make (and What To Do About It)

Photo  by: CarbonNYC

Everyone knows what you need to do if you want to get out of debt and create a savings account; you have to make more money than you spend. So if we all know this, then why are so many of us still in debt? If you’re still spending more money than you’re earning then it’s probably because of one of the following reasons:

• You don’t know how much you spend. It is shocking how many people there are who don’t track their spending. If you don’t know what you spend, you can’t be sure you’re spending less than you’re earning. Tracking your spending is the best way to avoid this problem. In rare cases, people don’t even know what they earn; tracking your income is also necessary.
• You don’t budget. Some people know what they’re spending. They know it’s more than they can afford. But they don’t budget so they only see the problem after the fact. Create a budget that relies on spending less than you earn. Then learn how to stick to that budget.
• You justify “emergency” expenses. The problem is that there are “emergency” expenses every month. You justify over-spending because you “need” to take the cat to the vet, get your home cleaned since your parents are visiting, buy a birthday present for the party that your child was just invited to, etc. Stick to your budget unless there’s a true emergency.
• You expect instant gratification. You want what you want when you want it. You’re willing to spend money to get it. If you want more than your income allows for then you’re in trouble. Learning to delay gratification until you have the money in hand to pay for what you desire can go a long way towards getting you out of debt. It’s also a great sign of maturity!

(more…)

Debt Reduction for the Willfully Stupid

Photo by: kainr

People get into debt in a variety of ways.  Some people have medical problems or other things that are largely beyond their control.  Others have simply traded their future earnings for current creature comforts.

While the ways in which people get into debt are varied, the ways out really aren’t.  A lot of people try to make debt reduction complicated.  It isn’t.  There are a few basic moves that will get you out of debt, but they’re predicated on being realistic, accepting that you’ve already had more fun than you’ve earned, and it’s time to redress the balance.  Even if your debt is the result of things beyond your control, here’s some basic advice for those who feel like it’s time to be realistic about how to get out.

Cut Your Expenses

So you have a certain standard of living you’d like to maintain?  Too bad.  When you’re in debt, every dollar you spend costs you that dollar, plus all the financing costs until all your debt is paid off.  Let’s take a simple example.  If you have a 20% APR credit card and it’s going to take you 3 years to pay down your debt, every dollar you spend is actually costing you over two dollars.  That’s without taking into account the fact that a penny saved is more valuable than a penny earned after taxes.  That five dollar burger is now going to cost you ten dollars.  While this ignores the effect of inflation, you get the point.  Putting that dollar towards debts was the better move.

Get a Second Job

Many people are very concerned about their free time.  If you have debt, you’ve already spent your future free time.  When you bought that flat screen TV on your credit card, you were trading your future free time for a TV.  Doesn’t seem like such a good trade now?  Imagine the impact of another twenty hours of work on your ability to pay off your debts.  Assuming you’re at least in the black and slowly paying down your debts, you can put every penny you make at your second job toward your debts.  While you’ll lose some free time, you’ll reduce the stress that all that debt is putting on you. (more…)

8 Big Picture Budgeting Tips

Photo by: auntsmack4u

Budgeting can seem like a mystery to many people, when it’s really very simple.  While this may seem basic to some, these represent principles that I describe in many of my other more detailed posts.  These 8 tips to help you develop a successful and realistic budget, can also help you to start thinking about your finances more successfully:

A budget’s primary goal is to result in ideal allocation of capital for yourself or your family. Oftentimes when we don’t pay close attention to where our money is going we wind up spending money in places we don’t need to and go without in places where we do.  This is simply inefficient.  Imagine for example if you wind up spending $100 on a nice dinner but then deny yourself a $100 kayak, which you would have much rather had.  Ultimately a budget can help you make sure that your money winds up where you want it.

Get your expenses in front of you. To start the budgeting process, get everything you can in front of you:  Credit card statement, bank statements, all your bills and anything else that gives you a picture of your financial situation.  The more complete your picture is of your expenses, the more likely you are to draft a realistic budget.

Re-examine your bills. One great way to help improve your budget is to look again at all your monthly bills.  For example, you might be straining to save an additional $15 per week and you might find out that simply by making a bundling agreement, you can save that much on your phone and television.  These kinds of savings can often come at no cost, or even with an improvement in your lifestyle.  You also should look at your bills with a mind toward capital allocation.   While $30 per month may not seem like much for a game you enjoy playing, would you rather spend that $30 on something else?  If so, reallocate your capital. (more…)

Debt and Moral Hazard

Photo by: Vinay Deep

For decades now the American approach to debt has been to worry about it later.  We’ve essentially kicked the problem down the road.  While some points in our history may have suggested somewhat higher debt levels, we’ve done nothing to reduce them in more booming times.  Ultimately we’ve just turned a blind eye to a growing problem and it may be too late. 

Many people are talking about moral hazard these days, but strangely they all seem to think it’s something that applies to someone else.  Bailouts of millionaire bankers strike us as outrageous, while we personally hold an absurd amount of debt.  Somehow the country got all screwed up without any of us being at fault. 

Our politicians seem to suggest that their opponents are the ones rewarding negative behavior and that they themselves would never commit such an act.  This doesn’t hold up to much scrutiny however.  Throughout the booms of the previous decades, neither Democrat nor Republican has ever used fiscal policy to “cool down” a boom.  Nor have they used any of the booms to reduce our debt to increase our capacity to deal with the next bust.

Clinton was just beginning to talk about reducing the debt when the Internet bubble burst.  Bush managed to go through a massive housing bubble while growing the national debt by over 4 trillion dollars.1  Government has simply never shown any discipline in managing its budgets.  Unfortunately, this is not only true of the government.

Short Term Myopia

Americans and people in general have a tendency to look at a very short sample space and assume that the results they’re seeing are meaningful.  Ten years is a long period of time in a human life, so if something has held true for the last decade, it must be true, the thinking goes.   Unfortunately those ten years are actually quite a short time in the life of an economy.

So many times in history we’ve been told that “things have changed.”  Something has fundamentally shifted and the old rules don’t apply anymore.  For the last decade, people watched their 401(k) accounts grow by double digit figures each year and they just came to assume that this was a sustainable result.  Similarly they’ve leveraged themselves to the hilt and assumed that since they’ve been able to sustain themselves with this massive debt they’d be able to do so in the future.  Sadly, this is an untenable ponzi scheme. (more…)

1. CBS News – Bush Administration Adds $4 Trillion To National Debt [↩]

Analyzing Health Insurance

Photo by: gwire

For many of us, particularly the self-employed, choosing health insurance can be a difficult proposition.  Laws and rules tend to vary by state, so it is difficult to make general guidelines for buying insurance.  In fact, state legislation is one of the biggest factors in the availability of affordable health insurance in the state.  As such, it’s difficult to write a comprehensive guide to analyzing health insurance, however there are several guidelines that can make it easier.

Do You Need Health Insurance?

The first question many of us ask is:  Do I even need health insurance?  The short answer is “yes.”  Insurance can be a bad deal for us.  Ultimately if the odds weren’t stacked in the company’s favor they wouldn’t be offering the product in the first place.  While this logic may be true, the real reason we buy insurance is to offload catastrophic risk.  We don’t want to have our lives ruined if we get a serious illness, so it makes sense to protect ourselves from such a fate.

That’s an important point to remember when you’re making decisions about your health insurance.  You’re not buying health insurance because you want every medical procedure to be free.  You’re buying health insurance because you don’t want to be ruined.  If you’re paying $300 per month so that you can get a $100 doctor visit for free, you’re not doing yourself any good.  We’ll look at this more closely when we start crunching numbers. (more…)