Why Now May Be the Right Time for Green Stimulus

Photo by: andjohan

In the period leading up to the realization of the current economic crisis, Green was booming.  Solar cell companies were stock market darlings, and the whole sector looked like it may have the makings of the next bubble.  Unfortunately the crash has of course taken some of the bloom off that rose and investment has decreased to 2007 levels.1  But the crash is offset somewhat by the components of President Obama’s stimulus package that call for spending on renewable energy and other “Green” projects.

Why Green?

Generally the idea behind counter-cyclical spending is for the government to put people to work doing things that benefit the country as a whole-thus the idea of building roads, schools, or something else that will give a lasting benefit while helping invigorate the economy through the spending.  This is a win-win.  For those who are pro-Green, environmentally friendly projects seem like the perfect kind of project.  You can wean the country off oil, save the environment and fix the economy all at once.  But is this argument realistic? (more…)

1. Forbes – Venture Capital Investment in Renewable Energy Exceeds $836.1M in Q1 2009 [↩]

The Difficulty of Investing in 2009

Photo by: Mel B.

2009 is a dreadful year to try to invest.  While we have seen a massive rebound in stocks, there are a variety of factors that make long term planning very difficult.

Asset Class Difficulties

The first thing that makes the current economic climate so difficult is the correlation between asset classes.  Under normal circumstances declines in one asset class involve money moving to another asset class.  Thus when stocks go down, bonds or gold or another asset class is usually the beneficiary.

What makes the current economy so difficult is that you see capital essentially being “destroyed” by the deflationary spiral.  Forced liquidation on the part of many funds caused by redemptions and margin calls contribute to this problem as well.  While this problem was particularly pronounced in 2008, you continue to see deflationary pressures affecting all asset classes.

Government Intervention

One of the most obvious difficulties of building a long term plan in 2009 is the frequency and fervor of government intervention.  Policy makers are attempting to walk several fine lines and thus are constantly exerting strong forces upon the market.  In their zeal they make it very difficult to draw long range conclusions about what makes sense.

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Is the Financial Sector a Utility?

Photo by:  futureatlas.com

I am a fervent believer in free markets.  More specifically I believe that they, much like Democracy, are flawed but vastly superior to any alternative.  As various elements in the world decry the current financial crisis as an indictment of the flaws of capitalism, I wait patiently for them to suggest the proven alternative.  Despite this, I am left wondering if the financial sector is an exception to the wisdom of free markets.

Does Regulation Even Work?

If I’m defending free financial markets, my first piece of evidence is the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.   This organization was 225 people as of 2006, tasked solely with regulating and overseeing Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.1 With both of those organizations now being operated by the government after becoming tremendously over-leveraged, the efficacy of regulation is certainly in doubt.  If an organization of 225 people cannot regulate a large financial entity, what good does adding more regulation to the system do? (more…)

1. OFHEO 2006 Performance and Accountability Report [↩]

CD Ladders: Some Personal Experience

Photo by: Collin Anderson

Back in the era before I started falling asleep at night terrified by visions of inflation, I had a retirement plan.  Every month I would open a CD.  Eventually I would get to where I had a CD renewing every month, then every week, then every day.  Once the interest on those CDs paid my living expenses, I was done and could retire.  Of course my dreams of building a CD ladder were somewhat upended by the recession and  banking crisis.

What Is A CD Ladder?

A CD ladder is a way to get the improved returns CDs usually offer without the problems of diminished liquidity.  The idea is that you get CDs set up in such a way that the money you have invested in them matures periodically, maybe every month, giving you easy access to liquid funds while retaining better returns than a regular savings account.  This can be a good way to maximize returns on your cash.

How to Build a CD Ladder

A typical way to build a CD ladder is to build it all at once.  Let’s say you have $12,000 and you want to build a ladder where you have a one year CD renewing every month.  One way to approach the problem is to simply open a CD with one month, two month, etc. maturity dates, and then when the time comes to renew them, renew at a 12 month period.  Of course it can be hard to find a seven month CD, so you may have to go to plan B and build it over time.  My approach was simply to buy a 12 month CD every month until I had mine set up.  You do not have to use one year CDs of course.  You could use half as many six month CDs to get the same effects, although likely with inferior yields. (more…)

5 ETFs That Can Help Balance Your Portfolio

Photo by: Nicholas_T

While I generally advocate against investing in individual stocks for amateur investors, I make some exceptions for ETFs.  Exchange Traded Funds are funds that trade on the stock market like a regular stock, but represent underlying assets like a mutual fund.  These ETFs give you an opportunity to hedge your stock market positions and provide some balance to your portfolio fairly easily.  While I would still recommend a lot of research before buying any of these, each of these ETFs gives you some ability to round out your positions.

GLD: Gold

I’ve been known to make fun of “Gold Bugs” now and again in my days, but you have to admit that with the specter of inflation looming over all of the spending and stimulus, gold becomes a bit more appealing.  The mechanism for this ETF is supposed to be fairly straightforward, and it’s done a good job of duplicating the returns of gold recently.  Because most of the currencies out there are from governments who are in straits just as dire as the USA, it can be appealing to find a “currency” that no government has control over.

TIP:  Inflation Protected Treasuries

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A Different Kind of Stimulus – Rewarding Our Troops

Photo by: Aaron Escobar

Right now Barack Obama is dealing with resistance to spending trillions of stimulus dollars to help offset reductions in consumer spending.1  While it seems likely that this debt will create a burden for us to deal with later, the notion that we need to put out the fire seems at least somewhat compelling.  While many may question the Obama Administration’s reported claim that this government spending will have wide-ranging benefits, many economists feel that there is a need to replace the decrease in private sector spending.2

When the spending in question is for something that improves the country in the long term, the proposition seems even more appealing.  When we build roads, schools, or even electronic medical records, we’re creating infrastructure that should do long-term good.  It may not be the optimal use of the funds, but it seems a good way to inject some spending into a timid economy and reduce the risk of deflation.

However, while all of this spending is being debated and ramped up, we are simultaneously effectively cutting defense spending.3  This seems both counter-productive and distasteful for several reasons:

Soldiering Is a Shovel-Ready Job

One of the key complaints of Republicans about the spending in the stimulus bill is that it does not take effect quickly enough.4 Military spending, specifically increasing the pay of soldiers and recruiting more, can take immediate effect.  We could start paying our service men and women more tomorrow and that money would flow through the economy.  It would also certainly be a project of less than 1 year to increase recruiting.

Soldiering Is a Public Good

While studies on the effects are rare, anecdotally many soldiers report increases in personal discipline and responsibility due to time in the military.  If young men and women improve their qualities as citizens from military service, it is of great benefit to society.  Additionally, it certainly seems more beneficial than unemployment. 

Obviously having a strong military also benefits our ability to implement foreign policy and maintain peace around the world.  Given that we already have troops in active combat, it seems realistic that additional help would not hurt and give troops a better chance to get out of harm’s way.  It is pivotal however that this spending be on manpower, and not on new technology or other programs.  Modern warfare is rarely the kind of conflict for which stealth bombers were invented, and the goal is to quickly create jobs defending our country.

The Real Boon of an Increased Military

In a time of seeming moral hazard, it seems like a fine time to reward people of service and merit.  While we may have to bail out banks and Wall Street firms with taxpayer money, we can’t feel overly good about it.  Providing bonuses, increased pay, and other perks to our service men and women would not only be more appealing morally, it would have the benefit of creating a notion that the right people get rewarded sometimes.  Much like after World War II, where we rewarded our veterans with perks and programs designed to help them benefit in life, the time seems right for similar spending. 

Rather than cutting defense spending, we should be essentially directing a good portion of our stimulus into rewarding our soldiers that have given us such valiant service, and recruiting more to strengthen our ranks.  The turnaround time on the investment is nearly immediate and it will have long reaching benefits, as our military becomes stronger and perceived as a better destination for young men and women.  It has all the desirable characteristics of a good stimulus plan, with the additional perk that it feels good.

1. SFGate – Obama touts $3.6 trillion spending outline [↩]
2. Wall Street Journal – Government Spending Is No Free Lunch [↩]
3. The Weekly Standard – Senators Raise Concerns about Defense Cuts in Letter to Gates [↩]
4. CNN Money – Stimulus will take a while to work [↩]

AIG and Populist Rage

Photo by: Gene Hunt

Populist rage is all the…well…rage.  Everyone right now is outraged over how much people get paid to do their job poorly, or how much more some people have than everyone else.  Now of course you can make arguments that the income distribution of modern society is counter-productive, but one key question is:

Why Do We Care RIGHT NOW?

As of now Congress is considering passing a tax to basically recoup 100% of any bonuses paid to AIG employees.1  Everyone is incensed that people get paid these bonuses despite their companies doing poorly.  It seems that the public will not be satisfied until they get their pound of flesh.  This leads one to question why we stop at bonuses?  If the American government is willing to institute taxes to recoup money from the employees of this company, why not garnish their wages too?  

They did a bad job, so lets punish them, regardless of whether they were instructed to do what they did, and more importantly:  They have contracts stating they get this pay.2 These employees signed contracts indicating that if certain events happened they would get these bonuses.  We now want to invalidate them, simply because we don’t like what they are getting paid.  Imagine if you were guaranteed a signing bonus after one year of employment and then because the company did poorly, they decided to simply not honor that obligation.

“Yes But They’re Taking Our Bailout”

The justification for this 100% tax is that AIG took our bailout money so all their obligations are moot.  They want our money, they have to do whatever we say.  In theory that sounds fine, but then you have to question why we bailed out AIG in the first place.  The reason we bailed out AIG was so that the people to whom they had obligations would not be wiped out.  AIG had obligations to foreign banks and other institutions and investors that we didn’t want to see destroyed, so we bailed out AIG so they could meet those obligations.  Now we want to essentially pick and choose which obligations we’re willing to meet.

What’s interestingly lost in all of this is the release of AIG counterparties and where all your tax payer money has been going.  Among the recipients of these funds are foreign banks.3  In that same populist vein, had the bonus story not overshadowed this story, would the same people be advocating that we not pay back European banks?  Or other Wall Street firms?  Ultimately all of this bailout money is going to people who helped create the crisis, because if it wasn’t there wouldn’t be a crisis.  It is interesting that in all of this mess, alleged “populists” are getting outraged by individuals having their obligations met, but not institutions.

None Of This Is Fair

One thing you have to remember in all of this is that none of this is fair.  It’s not fair that poorly mismanaged companies get bailed out at all, while people who made much less egregious mistakes go without aid.  However the sum of these bonuses, $170 million dollars in a bailout in the trillions of dollars, seems like too little of a price to compromise the law.  Ultimately when it comes to the law we all like to have a certainty that if we have a contract to receive something, we will receive it.  I personally don’t think it’s wise to discard the law simply because of one of the smaller injustices in a story rife with injustice.  I’d rather not set the precident that in times of crisis, the law goes out the window.  My sharpest criticisms of the Bush administration were that when our principles were challenged we threw them all out the window in the pursuit of revenge, I have no desire to see us repeat that mistake.

1. AIG Bonus Checks May Be Taxed At Up to 100%, Says Sen. Chuck Schumer – U.S. News and World Report [↩]
2. The Case for Payout Out Bonuses at AIG – New York Times [↩]
3. AIG Outs Counterparties – Forbes.com [↩]

Is the Debt Snowball an Atkins Diet?

Photo by: House of Sims

While I run the risk of alienating a lot of low-carbers out there, I’m choosing to use Atkins as an analogy because I think there are a few parallels between the diet and my reluctance to endorse the debt snowball approach that is currently en-vogue. Generally the accepted science on Atkins as of this writing is that while it is very effective at weight loss, the long term benefits are not entirely clear1. This largely equates to why I don’t advocate the debt snowball approach.
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1. “Atkins Diet Vindicated But Long-term Success Questionable.” Obesity, Fitness and Wellness Week — June 14, 2003: 25. [↩]