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Some Thoughts on “Dollar Cost Averaging”

Photo by: Rob Lee

The term “Dollar Cost Averaging”, or DCA, can have many different meanings.  Oftentimes when referring to “Dollar Cost Averaging,” people actually mean “Automatic Investing.”  DCA typically refers to investing over a period of time an amount you could have invested initially.  So for example, if you had $10,000 to invest, instead of putting it all in now, you invest it over a period of several months in equal dollar amount increments.  Automatic Investing on the other hand is simply taking a set amount out of your income and investing it every month.  This is what the majority of people think of as Dollar Cost Averaging.

The Theory

Proponents of DCA claim that it reduces risk, because you tend to buy more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high.  This argument makes some sense in an oscillating market that isn’t moving overall in any particular direction.  One question remains, however: why would you want to be investing in an oscillating market that isn’t trending in one direction?  Typically most people’s faith in investing in stock markets is that over time they go up.  If the market is on average going to move upwards, why am I holding back investing a portion of my investment?  On average this simply means I’m going to get a higher price.

The Worst-Case Scenario

If we think about this matter anecdotally it seems intuitive however that by holding back some money to invest we’re reducing our worst-case scenario.  Suppose for example that we invest all our money today and tomorrow the stock drops precipitously.  We’ve avoided that risk.  At the same time however, what if the stock rises sharply and never returns to our original price.  While we may be reducing our worst-case scenario somewhat, we’re also risking leaving a lot of money on the table.  Still there seems to be some merit to increasing your exposure over time. (more…)

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76 ETFs For Foreign Stock Exposure

Photo by: foxspain

Many people are looking for various ways to invest in foreign companies.  Whether they’ve lost faith in American companies, want to hedge or simply want  some diversity, ETFs can be an easy answer to eachieve this.  I’ve listed 76 ETFs that provide you exposure to the stocks of certain countries, groups of countries or the world as a whole.  Some things to remember:

  • Many countries are highly dependent on a particular sector. For example if you’re buying a Russian ETF in many ways you are buying a lot of exposure to energy as that country is highly dependent on energy income.
  • Many of these funds have run up tremendously in the previous few months.
  • Some of these funds are not particularly liquid.
  • Many of these funds have high fees associated with them.
  • Each of these funds implements their exposure in different ways, be sure to read the prospectus.
  • This list is far from exhaustive, although it was exhausting to compile.

My summary of all this is:  Read the Prospectus, Read the Prospectus, Read the Prospectus.  Make sure you know what you’re actually buying if you buy one of these ETFs.  I’m not recommending or endorsing any of them, I’m just compiling some resources to help you start your research. (more…)

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Why Everyone’s Wrong About Fixing Health Care

Photo by: Bolshakov

Like most debates in this country, the health care debate has gone into the weeds.  People, regardless of their point of view, spout disingenuous arguments to further their cause.  Critics suggest that simply providing insurance for everyone will make everything “fair,” while their opposition makes arguments for the continuation of a broken system.  While I have a healthy skepticism of the government’s ability to solve most problems, it seems that there are telling factors that suggest that the status quo is not just unsustainable, but catastrophic.

Why Do We Need to Do Anything?

Before we move forward, this is a question many believe remains unanswered.  Why do we presuppose that something is wrong with the American medical system?  The most basic reason is that we spend more money to get worse outcomes.  While there are areas in which we excel, ultimately we spend almost double that of most industrial nations, but our infant mortality rate, for example, is signifcantly worse than almost all other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries.1

Additionally the care and cost in America are widely uneven.  Interestingly they go hand in hand.  The Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care studied the issue nationwide and found almost a threefold difference in health care costs and an inverse correlation between costs and outcomes.2 In other words, the more I’m spending, typically the worse care I’m getting.  All of this suggests that we’re wasting a lot of money, and we need to figure out why.

Perverse Incentives

The fundamental problem in American healthcare boils down to one simple issue: perverse incentives. A perverse incentive is one in which those who are creating the incentives are creating unintended and typcially counterproductive effects.  They are essentially creating their own negative consequences.  As we’ll see almost every component of our system is rife with these types of incentives:

Overconsumption

The opponents to changes in the system constantly raise the “grim” visage of rationed care.  Americans fear loss of control when they look at other countries in which residents have to wait for procedures, even though those countries generally have better health outcomes than does America.  However the flip side to a lack of rationing tends to be overconsumption.

Everyone in the current system has an incentive to allow patients to over-consume medical attention.  Assuming a patient has insurance, it really costs him or her very little out of pocket to get an MRI — even when the doctor may consider it largely unnecessary.  Meanwhile the doctor typically makes money because the patient gets an unnecessary MRI.  The insurance company is likely indifferent as they have already priced their insurance plan assuming this kind of over-consumption.  In the end, we’ve spent considerable money on this MRI and no one’s health is any better.

As the Bear Mountain Bull points out, the structure of many current insurance plans is likely to cause overconsumption.  Because the patient has no “skin in the game,” they opt for procedures that are very unlikely to be useful.  All kinds of diagnostic tests can be taken on the assumption that it’s “better to be safe than sorry,” without taking the cost into account at all.

The Way America Rations

Even as we show such aversion to rationing, America has a different kind of rationing that is far more insidious.  In an extremely perverse incentive, the number of doctors in the United States is decided upon indirectly by the American Medical Association.  That is, current doctors decide how many new doctors there should be.  In the 90’s, despite the oncoming wave of baby boomers reaching old age, the AMA somehow decided that there were going to be a glut of doctors and actually recommended to cut the number of internships available.3 Much of the current shortage now can be attributed to this decline in the number of doctors.

It is rarely in the best interest of the consumer for the provider of a service to decide how many people should be allowed to provide that service.  Even providers with the best intentions are likely to err on the low side.  That doesn’t even take into account those who may be intentionally self-serving and trying to increase demand for their services. (more…)

  1. OECD Family Database – Infant Mortality []
  2. Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care – Health Care Spending, Qualty and Outcomes []
  3. USA Today – Medical Miscalcuation Creates Doctor Shortage []
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Why You Spend More Than You Make (and What To Do About It)


Photo  by: CarbonNYC

Everyone knows what you need to do if you want to get out of debt and create a savings account; you have to make more money than you spend. So if we all know this, then why are so many of us still in debt? If you’re still spending more money than you’re earning then it’s probably because of one of the following reasons:

  • You don’t know how much you spend. It is shocking how many people there are who don’t track their spending. If you don’t know what you spend, you can’t be sure you’re spending less than you’re earning. Tracking your spending is the best way to avoid this problem. In rare cases, people don’t even know what they earn; tracking your income is also necessary.
  • You don’t budget. Some people know what they’re spending. They know it’s more than they can afford. But they don’t budget so they only see the problem after the fact. Create a budget that relies on spending less than you earn. Then learn how to stick to that budget.
  • You justify “emergency” expenses. The problem is that there are “emergency” expenses every month. You justify over-spending because you “need” to take the cat to the vet, get your home cleaned since your parents are visiting, buy a birthday present for the party that your child was just invited to, etc. Stick to your budget unless there’s a true emergency.
  • You expect instant gratification. You want what you want when you want it. You’re willing to spend money to get it. If you want more than your income allows for then you’re in trouble. Learning to delay gratification until you have the money in hand to pay for what you desire can go a long way towards getting you out of debt. It’s also a great sign of maturity!
  • (more…)

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Debt Reduction for the Willfully Stupid


Photo by: kainr

People get into debt in a variety of ways.  Some people have medical problems or other things that are largely beyond their control.  Others have simply traded their future earnings for current creature comforts.

While the ways in which people get into debt are varied, the ways out really aren’t.  A lot of people try to make debt reduction complicated.  It isn’t.  There are a few basic moves that will get you out of debt, but they’re predicated on being realistic, accepting that you’ve already had more fun than you’ve earned, and it’s time to redress the balance.  Even if your debt is the result of things beyond your control, here’s some basic advice for those who feel like it’s time to be realistic about how to get out.

Cut Your Expenses

So you have a certain standard of living you’d like to maintain?  Too bad.  When you’re in debt, every dollar you spend costs you that dollar, plus all the financing costs until all your debt is paid off.  Let’s take a simple example.  If you have a 20% APR credit card and it’s going to take you 3 years to pay down your debt, every dollar you spend is actually costing you over two dollars.  That’s without taking into account the fact that a penny saved is more valuable than a penny earned after taxes.  That five dollar burger is now going to cost you ten dollars.  While this ignores the effect of inflation, you get the point.  Putting that dollar towards debts was the better move.

Get a Second Job

Many people are very concerned about their free time.  If you have debt, you’ve already spent your future free time.  When you bought that flat screen TV on your credit card, you were trading your future free time for a TV.  Doesn’t seem like such a good trade now?  Imagine the impact of another twenty hours of work on your ability to pay off your debts.  Assuming you’re at least in the black and slowly paying down your debts, you can put every penny you make at your second job toward your debts.  While you’ll lose some free time, you’ll reduce the stress that all that debt is putting on you. (more…)