Photo by: Ryan McFarland

U.S. Treasuries surged in popularity during the recent crisis.  In fact at one point people were so anxious to buy up treasuries that the short-term yield dropped to 0%.  At this point Warren Buffet emailed his directors:

This should be bullish for Berkshire. With great foresight, I long ago entered the mattress business in a big way through our furniture operation. Now mattresses have become fully competitive as a place to put your money, and sales will soon take off.^[1] 

People were anxious to find a safe place to put their money, which is one of the strong suits of U.S. Treasuries. 

Treasuries have a very different risk profile than many other investments.  There is a very low risk of default compared to other types of bonds, but you are exposed to risks like inflation.  ETFs can provide a way to introduce this risk profile into our portfolios more easily than actually buying the bonds.  There are several ETFs which allow you to do this and many concepts that can be pivotal to understand before doing so.  

Understanding Yields and Prices

Bond prices and yields can be a bit opaque to those without experience; however they are a fairly simple concept.  When a bond is issued, it pays a certain amount and has a certain cost.  Say for example I buy a $10,000 bond that will pay me $300 per year.  Thus it yields 3%.  Now many would think that since the bond will repay my $10,000 at the end of its life, it would be a risk-free investment.  However suppose that interest rates go down at that 3% becomes more attractive, people will be willing to pay more for that same bond.  As the price goes up, the $300 per year becomes a smaller fraction and the yield of the bond goes down.  Meanwhile if interest rates go up, my bond becomes less attractive and the price will go down.  

This is very important when considering inflation.  Generally if inflation is high, you will see higher interest rates.  As such in an inflationary environment, bond yields tend to increase, meaning the price of any bonds you own may very well go down.  This means that the term of the bond becomes very important.  While over a short period of time, inflation may be predictable; over long periods any number of things can happen to affect interest rates.  Obviously because of this, longer dated bonds tend to pay higher yields.  

Treasury ETFs

There are many treasury ETFs and will likely be many more in the future.  Some of the more popular ones include:

TLT – Long Term Treasuries

This fund “seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the long-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital US 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index.”^[2] Thus if you want to buy long-term treasuries, this could be a good fund for you.  When buying a fund like this it is important to consider how inflation may affect yields over a long period of time.  These bond funds are committing money for long periods of time, so if we have inflation or high interest rates, these funds can lose considerable value.  Also, because of their long period they can be much more volatile than shorter dated bonds.

Currently the market has been reflecting fears about inflation as TLT prices have been dropping and yields improving.  This suggests that the market thinks inflation is a serious concern at that these bonds need to be lower priced to be competitive.  This may be a result of increased optimism about an impending recovery in the US.  

SHY – Short Term Treasuries

This fund “seeks to approximate the total rate of return that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the short-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital 1-3 Year US Treasury Index.”^[3] Because of its short term, this ETF is not very volatile at all.  For example, during the 52 weeks from the time of this writing its range has been 82.07 – 85.17.^[4]  One would not expect to see a tremendous price change in such short term notes, which can be either a good thing or a bad thing depending on your objectives. 

IEF – Intermediate Term Treasuries

This fund “seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital 7-10 Year US Treasury Index.”^[5] Thus this fund runs the middle ground between the other two.  It tends to be more volatile than the SHY, but less than the TLT. 

TIP – Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

Another popular type of treasury is Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.  These bonds have their principal adjusted annually to reflect changes in the Consumer Price Index.  The TIP “seeks results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the inflation-protected sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index (Series-L).”^[6] This provides an interesting middle ground where your investment is not as exposed to the risk of inflation.  At the same time these bonds have a differing tax-treatment and are likely to pay lower base yield. 

Other ETFs

In addition to other ETFs that seek to emulate the exact same returns, there are also leveraged ETFs which seeks to return some multiple of the movement of these funds.  One example would be TBT which seeks to return double the inverse of the TLT.  Thus if the TLT goes up 10% in a day the TBT would go down 20%.  There are a wide variety of ways to invest in treasuries.  These funds can provide additional options to your investment playbook, but should be thoroughly researched before used.  

[Disclosure:  I am currently long TLT with offsetting call options sold to hedge my position]

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Treasury ETFs

1. Forbes – Buffet Bets On Mattresses
2. iShares TLT Product Information
3. iShares SHY Product Information
4. Yahoo! Finance – Shy
5. iShares IEF Product Information
6. iShares TIP Product Information

This post is step 10 in our Investing Template.

Once you’ve decided how your money should be allocated, it then becomes a matter of execution.  There are many details that can make a tremendous difference in how your returns are realized.  How you get your money into its allocation is nearly as important as what allocation you choose.

Diversification

Diversification is a term you hear a lot.  It basically means making sure all your eggs are not in one basket.  While economic crises can affect all asset classes, in general when one does poorly, another does well.  Thus if you have your money in a variety of areas, you will generally get better returns.  Additionally, this applies to stock and is a compelling reason to buy mutual funds. 

Index Funds

Once you’ve settled on buying mutual funds, index funds are often a very reasonable approach.  Their goal is to roughly match the returns of various well known stock market indexes like the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  By buying into an index fund, you have gotten a tremendous amount of diversity in your stocks.  Additionally because they are essentially unmanaged, you are paying low maintenance fees and not subject to your money manager’s strategy becoming outdated.

Dollar Cost Averaging

Fortunately, for many of us this happens naturally due to the way 401(k) contributions are handled, but for the rest of us this can be very important.  Timing the market is a dicey proposition for experts, so for those of us simply trying to get reasonable returns it is a terrible idea to put all our money into a particular investment vehicle at once.  Instead the goal is to buy a fixed dollar amount of each vehicle every so often, maybe every month.  As a result, you will buy more when the price is lower and less when the price is higher.  This should help prevent catastrophic entry points and your average price should be favorable.

Rebalancing

Another technique is rebalancing your asset classes periodically.  Say you had been allocating 50% to stocks and 50% to bonds (not necessarily a good strategy, but easy for our example).  If during the first period of time stocks had done very well and bonds very poorly, your portfolio might now be allocated 65% stocks and 35% bonds.  By rebalancing, you move funds from the over-performing sector to the under-performing sector.  If this is not done too frequently, it can allow you to take part in the recovery of the laggard.

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Investing Step 10: Techniques

Photo by: PinkMoose

This post is step 9 in our Investing Template.

After all your tax-deferred accounts are being used to their maximum potential, it is time to fund any other accounts.  Once that is done, you need to start deciding how to allocate your funds.  This is the problem that many people did not properly address before the real-estate bubble burst and is the most important step to maximizing your returns.

Time Horizon

As we’ve discussed, the first thing you must decide in each account is how soon you will need access to the money.  You need to create an allocation based on this and adjust it accordingly.  Typically the more risky investments will even out over time and give the best returns, but can give horrible returns in the short run.  Thus the sooner you expect to use the funds, the less risky your choices should be.

For example, many people who were expecting to retire soon are suddenly in a state of confusion, because they left their investments in stocks and had massive negative returns.  This can be crippling for someone who was expecting to retire next year.  If they are expecting to retire in 20 years, there’s a good chance their investments will rebound.  However, if your time window is getting close you should be moving to safer, less risky investments, including cash.

Risk Aversion

In addition to the wisdom of avoiding risk when you are getting close to withdrawing funds, some people are very reluctant to put their money at risk at all.  If you are in this class, you should probably look to maximize your returns with very low or no-risk investments.  There are still many options available, even when capital preservation is a high concern.

The Spectrum

Here is a rough guide of some types of investments to consider, from least risky, to most risky:

•         Short Term Loans to Stable Government Entities
•         Mid and Long Term Loans to Stable Government Entities
•         Short Term Loans To Stable (Blue Chip) Companies
•         Long Term Loans to Stable (Blue Chip) Companies
•         Real Estate
•         High-Yield Debt (junk bonds)
•         Equity (Stocks and Mutual Funds)
•         Futures and Options

Real estate property has long been considered a safe investment, but recently this has been put into question.  Like any investment vehicle it is more easily navigated by experts and it is also very difficult to diversify.

Futures and options are best left to the pros.  In fact I recommend against even investing in individual stocks.  We’ll talk more about this in the next section.

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Investing Step 9: Allocation